Predictions

Today's Picks

The model's lean on every match — graded in public.

104

Fixtures

66/99

Lean hit

+0.11

xG bias

Over / Under 2.5

60/103 correct

LAST 5

Brier 0.242

BTTS

57/103 correct

LAST 5

Brier 0.249

1X2 Outcome

67/103 correct

LAST 5

Brier 0.503

MatchModel leanConfState

Expected goalsLoser Semi-final 1 v Loser Semi-final 2

Loser Semi-final 11.43 vs 2.64

Loser Semi-final 21.18 vs 2.89

Expected total2.60

Our predicted xGactual xG

Avg error / side

±0.59

Bias

+0.11

Settled

751

Last 5 settledView all ›

BTTS — YesLoser Semi-final 1 v Loser Semi-final 2Hit

BTTS — YesWinner Quarter-final 3 v Winner Quarter-final 4Hit

BTTS — YesFrance v SpainMiss

Under 2.5Argentina v SwitzerlandMiss

Away WinNorway v EnglandHit

Graded in publicPriced nightly 02:00 GMTNo picks deleted18+ · bet responsibly