We Don't Guess.
We Calculate.
A goals model trained on twenty years of World Cup football. Every pick priced, settled, and graded in public.
One pipeline, four moves — all of it graded.
No tipsters. The same loop runs on every World Cup fixture, start to finish.
01 · Data
Real results
Twenty years of World Cup + qualifiers — goals and actual xG.
3,593 matches
02 · Model
Every team rated
Dixon-Coles expected goals, blended toward real xG.
O2.5 · BTTS · 1X2
03 · Pick
Back the lean
The model's most-likely side + market blend. No longshots.
value → promo page
04 · Graded
In public
Settled against the real score. Nothing hand-typed or deleted.
< 1 min after FT
One match, end to end.
What we knew
Both sides' attack and defence, rated from 3,593 matches and normalised across confederations.
What the model said
Dixon-Coles turns the ratings into expected goals, then blends with the de-vigged market.
The lean
The most-likely side — never a longshot, never edge-chasing.
What happened · graded in public
Three goals — over the line, so the Under call missed. We log the misses too: nothing on the record ever gets deleted.
Every pick, on the record.
Wins and losses both. The live track record updates the moment a match ends — see for yourself.