Promo edge
Are the bookies' promos actually +EV?
We price each promo offer, then track it against real results — so you see which ones genuinely pay, not which ones look good in an ad.
65%
Promo won
6
Rescued
+25.1%
Flat ROI
65
Settled
MatchOfferedWin prob · with rescueEdge
No value right now.
How this promo works
Back Over 2.5 goals — it pays if either is true:
①The match ends with 3+ goals (normal win)
②A goal lands before the 10th minute — you win even if it finishes under
Path ② is the hidden edge+~6% win prob
Rescue tracker65 settled
6rescues triggered
6 of 65 settled bets finished under 2.5 but were won by a goal before the 10th minute.
Egypt v Iranearly goal · finished under
Turkey v Paraguayearly goal · finished under
Scotland v Moroccoearly goal · finished under
Czech Republic v South Africaearly goal · finished under
Portugal v Dr Congoearly goal · finished under
Mexico v South Africaearly goal · finished under
Does it actually pay?65 settled
Won65%
Predicted55%
Flat ROI
+25.1%
Beat close
—
Won at least as often as the model predicted — the offer is holding up against real results.
Last 5 settled
Jordan v Argentina4 goalsWon
Algeria v Austria6 goalsWon
Colombia v Portugal0 goalsLost
Panama v England2 goalsLost
Croatia v Ghana3 goalsWon
● 3+ goals● rescue● lost
Promo leaderboard — which offers actually payranked by realized flat ROI
#PromoWon · predictedRescuesFlat ROISettled
Small samples are noisy — treat ROI as directional until each promo has a few dozen settled bets. Tap a row to view its board.
Odds checked vs market averageEvery promo graded vs the real resultNot affiliated — we just price the offer18+ · bet responsibly